Speech by Minister Khaw Boon Wan at the Official Opening of Terminal 4, Changi Airport

My Cabinet and Parliamentary colleagues and friends,

1.     Seow Hiang described this project as a labour of love. Indeed it is. Let me take you a few steps upstream to the stage when we had to sharpen pencils, do projections, justify for big funds and make that political judgment call. To do or not to do, when to do it, postpone it, or what else. And it was a difficult exercise because as we all know, projecting aviation traffic correctly is a very difficult task.  It is especially challenging for the Changi Airport where transiting passenger numbers are significant.  Transit passengers have choices.  They do not have to come here.  We do our best to make it worthwhile for them to transit through Singapore, but other airports are working hard too.

2.     Our track record in projecting aviation traffic is worth reminding.  CAG Chairman Liew Mun Leong is a walking encyclopedia on Changi development. He has been personally involved in the various stages of our airport development since 1975!

3.     Last year, after the soft opening of Terminal 4, he wrote an internal memo to CAG colleagues, after the soft opening of Terminal 4.  He sent me a copy.  I read his account, with much relish.  Let me quote him:

     “When Changi Airport opened in July 1981, both Changi and Paya Lebar Airport together handled only about 8 million passengers that year.  Amidst severe scepticism from senior economists, we masterplanned the Changi future capacity to cater for the maximum demand of 30 million passengers per annum (mppa).  We were proven right.  Indeed Changi Airport hit that maximum plan of 30 mppa as early as 2004, much sooner than expected.  And recently on 18th Dec 2017, Changi hit 60 mppa, double the maximum 30 mppa we originally envisaged for Changi.”

4.     In the same memo, he reminded CAG colleagues of the Changi development strategy:

     “After completing T1 in 1981, we kept our eyes keenly on international aviation growth and its demand on airport capacity.  We adopted an unconventional economic strategy that “Supply drives Demand”, as we did not want to be caught back footed with insufficient airport capacity. As airport infrastructures require a lot of time to build, we started to plan and build early, comfortably ahead of capacity demands.  An overcrowded airport cannot be an attractive airhub.”

5.     Building ahead of demand is indeed one of Singapore’s economic success factors. We applied it, not only in aviation, but also in maritime and industrial land development.  For global business, if you don’t have the capacity to serve, you lose business to your competitors.  It’s as simple as that.

6.     But building ahead of demand requires sound judgement.  It is not simply “build and they will come”.  The aviation industry is unpredictable, subject to so many disruptions, including oil prices and at times, unhelpful Governmental interventions.  Adhering to straight line projections may end up with white elephants.  We must be sensitive to potential disruptions and be ready to make strategic changes promptly when warranted.

7.     Today, with T1, T2, T3 and T4, Changi can carry up to 82 mppa.  But with continuous aviation growth, this will not be sufficient.  That is why we will be expanding T2 and have started to plan for T5.  T5 is not just another terminal building. T5 will actually be our second airport.  To manage the risk of disruptions, we are designing T5 in scalable modules and to build them in phases.  This is a practical approach to avoid over-investment and being caught wrong-footed, should our projections turn awry.

8.     I congratulate the CAG, the contractors and the many stakeholders for a beautiful T4.  It is a handsome building and its operations, since the soft opening last year, have proven it to be an outstanding and popular terminal.

9.     We now have a great building to deliver a great service.  With intensive global competition, our ability to serve well is what will distinguish us from the others and make our projections come true.

10.     I hereby declare Changi Terminal 4 officially open!